The Manny Strategy: Waiting for Desperation

I was being interviewed on Baseball Digest Live! the other day when the question came up about Manny Ramirez.  What's he doing?  Why hasn't he signed?  When & where will he get his deal?  The answer is about as complex as Manny himself. 

There's a wild card in the whole Manny Ramirez/Scott Boras/free agency saga that nobody seems to be talking about.  People discuss the Dodgers and Ned Colletti.  They talk about the Giants possibly coming in.  They say Boras has been holding off, waiting for President Obama to include a Manny Bill into the economic stimulus package.  The one person nobody is bringing up is Manny himself.

When a player of his caliber is a free agent, it's not just Manny and his agent against the world.  The players union also has a vested interest in what happens.  They want him to get as much as he can to set the bar higher for future Mannys, like how Carsten Charles Sabathia set it this off season after Johan Santana set it last year for pitchers.  There's union pressure to get as many years for as much money per year as possible.

Manny's agent, Scott Boras, is a huge force in this, obviously.  Money isn't just on the line for him.  He's got ego, pride, self-satisfaction, competitive hunger...  You name it.  Scott needs his satisfaction from the deal.  You know he is pressuring Manny more than anyone because of what he wants, not necessarily what Manny wants.

Then there's Manny.  What does he want?  How much control does he have in this?  The phrase "Manny being Manny" has been used about 332,000 times over the past year.  It means that Manny is a wacko, a maverick (not the Sarah Palin kind); somebody who goes his own way and follows his own lead.  So if Manny follows his own lead, how much pressure is he feeling from the Dodgers or Boras or his union? 

Maybe he's not feeling any.  Maybe he's got a strategy of his own.

Did you ever think of this?  Manny may not want to play baseball in Los Angeles.  He didn't want to play in Boston anymore last season and was able to turn his desire to be out of there into a trade to LA.  He was a hitting machine once the trade took place, but the team fell short of the World Series and that was that.  Many in the media, ever since, have said it's inevitable that he re-signs with the team.  "Hollywood needs him, and he needs Hollywood" they say.  But is that rational?  In 15 1/2 seasons, did anyone ever say Manny needed Hollywood?  Just because he played 53 games there, does that mean he suddenly discovered the town he wants to play in for the rest of his playing days?  Just because he's a wacko and a baseball maverick, does that mean he Los Angeles is the perfect place for him? Any detective worth his salt would say the evidence for that is paper thin.  Ten weeks in LA doesn't mean diddly squat.

Which leads us to his personal off season strategy.  Do you think Manny cares where he plays?  Or do you think he's like the union & Boras, that he wants the highest annual salary ever granted in baseball and for the most years possible?

It's both.  Again due to his intensity as a competitor and his ego, he wants to set some sort of contractual record.  Unfortunately, the economy hurt his chances more than he and Boras originally thought.  Maybe going into the off season he thought there'd be a bidding war for his services between LA and one of the two NY teams.  Maybe San Francisco would jump in, or some other "mystery team" would go for it, like the Angels or the White Sox.  Didn't happen.  So his strategy changed.  Now, he's pursuing the Waiting for Desperation strategy.  Wait for Carlos Delgado to get hit in the wrist by a pitch in the WBC and be lost for the season, or Carlos Beltran to break a foot, or Torii Hunter to suddenly develop scoliosis.  In other words, once the best laid plans of a contending team go to hell in March, or April, or May, Manny will be there.  Waiting.  And in the best shape of his life. 

Manny's Strategy?  Wait for the desperation of any team with deep pockets, maybe weaker than expected attendance, and get the biggest single-season contract ever.  Then, he'll go on a tear like no other tear he's ever been on and, for 110 games, he'll take over.  And in the off season of 2009-2010, go through this whole thing again.  Did anyone ever think that this might be fun for Manny?  Maybe he's having the time of his life.  If so, why not go through it again?  Maybe the fun and ego satisfaction of being the biggest free agent in the off season outweighs the security of a multi-year deal.  Maybe Manny believes in himself enough to know 40 home runs in 2009 could lead to an even bigger deal for 2010.  He's earned enough money in his career to play a bit.  Maybe this is his personal gamble.

Is this a Manny Strategy or a Boras Strategy?  While it will look like the perfect Boras situation, my bet is that Manny Ramirez knows exactly what's going on.  He's not stupid.  He's not dumb.  He's Manny.  And being Manny isn't the worst thing in the world for anybody.  Especially if your future is lined with millions of recession-era dollars.